Portfolio Builder

This tool allows users to investigate giving portfolios in light of decision-theoretical uncertainty.
Learn More 2-min Intro Video 5-min Tool Basics Video

Guiding Questions

By default, we consider three charitable sectors you can spend on: Global Health and Development, Animal Welfare and Existential Risk Mitigation. Click on each cause area and answer the following questions to help us set parameters to match your assumptions.

Tip: If you're looking for a quick test, you can answer randomly.

QuestionGHDGlobal Health and DevelopmentAWAnimal WelfareXriskExistential Risk
1 How likely is it that funding projects in this sector will have a net positive effect?
Very unlikely(< 0.01%)
Quite unlikely (≈ 2%)
Unlikely (≈ 25%)
Quite likely(≈ 50%)
Likely(≈ 70%)
Almost certain (≈ 99%)
Other (custom setting)
2 How likely is it that funding projects in this sector will have a net negative effect?
Less likely than, but about as likely as, them succeeding
A lot less likely than the probability of success
The chance of backfiring is negligible
Other (custom setting)
3 Conditional on having positive impact, how much value are the first $1,000 dollars likely to achieve?
10 DALYs
100 DALYs
1,000 DALYs
10,000 DALYs
1,000,000 DALYs
Other (custom setting)
4 How fast do returns diminish in this sector?
Fast
Slowly
Very Slowly
Not at all
They actually increase
Other (custom setting)


To make cost-effectiveness distributions easier to visualize, we provide shooting graphs for each cause area. Important: notice differences in the y-axis scale of each graph.



Choose a decision theory and a budget with which to build an optimal portfolio.


Decision Theory

Decision Theory   




The current settings can be saved to a google sheet and then loaded from the same source via the link in that file.


This tool was built by Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team. Its development was led by Arvo Muñoz Morán and Derek Shiller.